Peak Oil Solutions

TRADING IN DINOSAUR POWER
ON A BETTER MODEL
Peak Oil Solutions — Real Energy Solutions for
Declining Energy Supplies

In our article Peak Oil and Environment, we outlined how non-conventional oil, biofuels, coal, and nuclear energy are peak oil solutions that have both inherent limitations and an environmental dark side. To that list, we added methane hydrates, biofuels from animal fat and offal, and hydrogen. None of these are technologies that we feel can provide a real solution to the problem of peak oil—or at least can do so in the long term and not cause environmental problems that are just as bad as the peak oil problem.

But if the "old guard" of energy technologies—coal, oil, gas, nuclear—are unsuitable for solving the coming liquid-fuels crisis because of supply limitations or because of unacceptable environmental consequences or other risks; and if the "new dog" technologies like ethanol, biodiesel, and hydrogen fuel cells are found to be lacking for various reasons, what would real energy solutions look like? Today, we offer our ideas for peak oil solutions, with a focus on energy technologies that have a real chance of long-term sustainability.

PEAK OIL SOLUTIONS

Reviewing the Basics

To be effective in the long term, peak oil solutions must be sustainable. That is, they must not rely heavily on resources that will eventually become depleted. Some use of such non-renewable fuels is fine—other non-renewable fuels will always emerge to pick up the slack for the depleting fuels. But petroleum has been a unique energy source, and we are unlikely to see alternate energy sources discovered that have:

• the same high energy density;
• an equivalent ease of extraction, refinement, and distribution;
• similar usefulness for mobile applications (like cars);
• the same overall versatility; and
• the same high availability.

In short, petroleum was a one-shot deal for humanity, and a future without oil is likely to be a less energy-abundant future. But keeping in mind the phrase "doing more with less" and knowing that humans and their infinite ingenuity will doggedly work on this problem, let's look at what possible energy solutions hold the most promise for allowing our long-term energy-generation rate to keep pace with our long-term energy-consumption rate.

SOLUTIONS TO PEAK OIL

Electricity, Plug-In Hybrids, and the Grid

Additionally, if we're going to be using more electricity, where will it come from? Right now the main energy sources used to make electricity in the US are coal (50%), natural gas (22%), and nuclear (18%). That totals up to 90%, which makes these the dominant electricity-generation technologies—by far.

What does the future hold for these three electricity stalwarts?

• Visual Blight.  It's fair to say that one wind turbine looks cool, and that maybe even a handful of them look pretty neat, but that hundreds or thousands of them all over the place could create "visual pollution." So, let's agree that there are going to be certain areas where we should avoid putting wind turbines—say, Yosemite or Big Sur, or any other place that would inhibit enjoyment of a particularly beautiful view. That said, it's important to remember that this is the only form of pollution that wind turbines cause while generating electricity. There is no air and water pollution (as we get with the mining and burning of coal) and there is no toxic waste (as we get with nuclear power plants). Also remember that one of the best ways to site wind turbines is on active farms or grazing land. The turbine infrastructure only uses 5% of the farm's footprint, leaving the rest of the space for crops or cattle. Would most of us really be offended at seeing hundreds of wind turbines in a wheat field or prairie? And, on a completely different track, why aren't we putting wind turbines on the tops of tall buildings, where the wind is usually very strong?
• Wildlife Kills.  Yes, wind turbines can kill birds and bats to some extent, but so do the structures and processes associated with other forms of energy generation. So do buildings, for that matter. Improved future turbine designs will no doubt lessen the problem of wildlife kills, and we should not let the issue divert us from using more wind power.
• Inconsistency.  The wind doesn't always blow, and when the wind stops blowing—or, more properly, when the wind stops blowing hard enough—wind turbines can't generate power. This means that we can only consider wind power as part of an overall electricity-generation mix, with other generation sources picking up the slack when the wind is weak. Improved large-scale electricity-storage technologies (batteries, capacitors, fuel cells) may also one day allow more practical storage of large amounts of electricity, which will help address inconsistencies in generation patterns from wind and other "nature-based energy technologies."

Wind energy's relative benefits far outweigh its detractions, and we should be using a lot more of it in the future. For more on wind power, see our article Wind Energy—Advantages, Cost, Potential, Statistics, and the Future.

PEAK OIL SOLUTION

Hydro Power

One hydropower technology that can generate power and do so with minimal disruption of the river (or stream) and surrounding lands is "micro-hydro"— small installations that typically do not use dams but rather divert a small percentage of a stream's water through a pipe to generate electricity using a turbine-generator at a lower elevation. The water can then be returned to the stream.

Micro-hydro is a great example of distributed power: It's electricity output is small—designed to supply a single house or perhaps a small village—but it is not dependent on the grid. A major drawback of micro-hydro is its site specificity—if a piece of property doesn't have a stream or sufficient elevation drop, it won't work. This limits micro-hydro's scalability in developed countries, though a good case can be made for putting installations where they're appropriate. Micro-hydro is more attractive in mountainous or hilly regions of developing countries, especially in regions where bringing in the grid isn't cost-effective.

PEAK OIL SOLUTIONS

Tidal and Wave Power

In simple terms, wave power and tidal power are the water-based equivalents of wind power. Moving water pushes against blades or other mechanical surfaces connected to energy-generating devices, and electricity is created. Because water is much denser than air, wave and tide power setups can extract more power per unit area than wind power.

Problems such as wildlife kills are thought to be lower with wave and tidal power setups than with wind power, though more studies have to be done. They also have the problems of potentially interfering with shipping lanes and needing to be sited in places that aren't very hospitable for large-scale construction. But a majority of the populations in Western countries live relatively close to coasts, and that gives wave and tidal power a logistical advantage over some other technologies (like nuclear—siting nuke plants in populous areas is a horrible idea!).

In time, the technical hurdles faced by wave power and tidal power will be overcome with design improvements and better insight into siting requirements. Wave and tidal power have good potential for the future, and we should be pushing to fast-track development of these technologies over the next decade.

PEAK OIL SOLUTION

Solar Energy

The amount of power delivered by the sun to the surface of the earth is massive. The Union of Concerned Scientists notes that the energy stored in all of earth's reserves of coal, oil, and natural gas is matched by the energy from just 20 days of sunshine. We MUST do better at utilizing the power of the sun!

There are two main ways to use the energy of the sun directly:

• to generate electricity;
• to capture heat.

In the first category, solar panels (a.k.a. photovoltaic, or PV) are the most familiar approach. Though its per-kilowatt-hour productions costs are still not cheap enough for general application, solar PV already is growing rapidly—and needs to grow much more. Increasing R&D funding would be a good move—more research is needed to make PV technology economically viable, and more production capacity (or a better production method) is needed for refinement of silicon if we are to significantly expand the number of solar panels in the future.

A relatively recent development in solar electric generation is Concentrating Solar Power, which concentrates the sun's rays to heat liquid-filled pipes. That heat energy is then used to generate electricity in a steam generator. This technology does very well in areas that get lots and lots of sun (like the US southwest), and the number of installations will no doubt rise.

The technologies used to generate electricity from solar energy may not quite be ready for widespread implementation, but heat-capture solar technologies are. These include:

• Solar Hot Water Heaters — These units use a panel on the roof to collect solar heat and transfer it to the water in your hot water tank. Solar hot water heaters usually pay back their extra up-front cost in just a few years.
• Passive Solar Heating and Cooling — Architectural designs that incorporate passive solar heating and cooling concepts capture solar heat during the winter and reject solar heat during the summer. In conjunction with good insulation and proper selection of windows and roofing materials, passive solar can greatly reduce a home's heating and cooling bills.

PEAK OIL SOLUTIONS

Algal Biofuels

In initial experiments, making biodiesel from certain types of oil-rich algae is orders of magnitude more efficient than making biofuels from crops like soybeans or palm oil.

Much work remains to be done on this technology, and it's not obvious that algae farms will scale up to useful levels of production. Further, the concerns we have about how feed stocks for conventional biofuels are grown (i.e. with chemical agriculture, and by chopping down rainforests to plant crops) would apply here too. But if those problems can be overcome or sidestepped, this technology appears to have the kind of efficiency numbers that make it viable for long-term, large-scale liquid fuel production.

SOLUTIONS TO PEAK OIL

The Coming Shortfall

We must admit that we think there is a flaw in our proposed peak oil solutions. They're mostly "David solutions" in a world of "Goliath energy requirements." Wind power, as promising as it is, currently accounts for slightly less than 1% of US electricity production. Solar's share is far less than that. Only hydro (at 5.4%) has anything close to a respectable share, but hydro is maxed out in the Western world.

We have a loooong way to go before both so-called "alternative energy" technologies can reach meaningful numbers at our current rate of development and expansion. What's unfortunate is that our leaders in Washington have used this fact as an excuse to shovel billions of dollars in subsidies to the established energy industries. They should recognize that those are unsustainable dinosaur technologies, doomed to eventual extinction. Pushing further in that direction can only lead to more pollution and, ultimately, a much higher "energy cliff" when peak finally occurs. They should instead applying those billions of dollars to research, development, and production of sustainable alternatives. We should be spending 10 or maybe even 100 times what we are now spending on sustainable-energy R&D, grid improvement, and incentives for builders and consumers.

In the end, none of the energy technologies we favor here are going to stave off the coming of peak oil and the liquid-fuels crisis, either alone or all together or in combination with the technologies we're less enthusiastic about (coal, nuclear, etc.). There is too much inertia in the system, too many politicians who prefer to preserve their own power and pad the pockets of their corporate cronies over protecting the long-term needs of the populace. And there is too little time left before the crisis starts. In this fable, David will not slay Goliath. Rapid development and deployment of new energy technologies will help, but it won't get us all the way there.

"Not only will atomic power be released, but someday we will harness the rise and fall of the tides and imprison the rays of the sun."

— Thomas Edison